CLOSE IN NEW YORK CITY– AT 8:02 A.M. ET:  One of the great political myths is that all New Yorkers are ultra-liberals who pine for George McGovern and even have kind things to say about Lenin.

Not quite true.  New York City is predominantly liberal, but can swing wildly if the situation calls for it.  In fact, New York City hasn't elected a Democratic mayor in 22 years.  Even New Yorkers wised up.

And so I'm not entirely astonished by what's happening in Anthony Weiner's old congressional district.  You remember Weiner, don't you?  He had to resign from Congress recently after suggestive pictures of him appeared on the internet.  He apparently had dreams of being a Playboy centerfold, but couldn't get the gender right.

A special election is about to be held in Weiner's district.  Weiner used to win in a walk.  But this race has become competitive, with the possiblity – just the possibility – of a Republican upset.  The reason?  Barack Obama, who has become unpopular with many New Yorkers.  And they're letting him know it...at the ballot box.   From RealClearPolitics:

“This is not the Upper East Side of Manhattan; this is a conservative, working-class district, and it means something different to be a Democrat,” says Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, who found that 42 percent of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of the president. “If you hold the president up as a straw man, if he represents complete allegiance to the Democratic Party and rejection of current Republican critique, it’s not solid in this district; it’s by no means, right now, a rubber stamp district for the Democrats.”

Noted New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf: “It’s not an Obama Democrat district, it’s a Harry Truman Democrat district, which means people can do almost anything given an opportunity of alternatives.” Recognizing that opportunity, national Republicans have poured money into this race.

COMMENT:  Those are key words:  "A Harry Truman district."  These are Democrats who believe in national defense, didn't think the North Vietnamese were great guys, and know who attacked us on 9-11.  They are somewhat liberal domestically, but are getting tired of schools that don't teach and social programs that don't produce. 

These are the Democrats the Democratic Party abandoned in the late 60s and early 70s.  Indeed, the predominant voices in the party have contempt for them.  Many became Reagan Democrats in 1980.

Can a Republican win?  The Republican candidate, Bob Turner, is, according to a recent poll, within six points of the anointed Dem candidate, David Weprin.  The odds still favor Weprin, but strange things are happening.

The election is September 13th.  Stand by.

September 1, 2011